If I were the UKR commander I'd be sure to commit a few high-end units in the early probes to encourage the enemy to believe *this* is the main thrust. Would not be at all surprised if we don't see the real punch for another week or two. That Swedish-trained and equipped brigade finishing its training cycle could be the vanguard of the true big push.
With the first reported battles coming in areas where UKR forces knew they would face heavy resistance, I sense a deep play on Kyiv's part. Not to say they're wasting lives - defenses have to be tested and this is the only way - but the more Moscow is encouraged to mass forces in any single place, the more vulnerable its field units and logistics become.
Good objective analysis. My initial thoughts based on open source analysis is that the Russian defensive lines are quite formidable as one would expect given their large amount of time to prepare. Brigade level breaching operations are incredibly complex. I suspect that the UA doesn't have the training to accomplish this nor do they have air sufficient air support or artillery mobility experience on the offensive. Will they be tempted to simply force the positions? Old habits die hard. It's early days but the cynic in me is wondering if the West purposely dragged their feet supplying eqpt and that there's a napkin somewhere with the new borders already drawn. I hope I am wrong.
Solid analysis, thanks!
If I were the UKR commander I'd be sure to commit a few high-end units in the early probes to encourage the enemy to believe *this* is the main thrust. Would not be at all surprised if we don't see the real punch for another week or two. That Swedish-trained and equipped brigade finishing its training cycle could be the vanguard of the true big push.
With the first reported battles coming in areas where UKR forces knew they would face heavy resistance, I sense a deep play on Kyiv's part. Not to say they're wasting lives - defenses have to be tested and this is the only way - but the more Moscow is encouraged to mass forces in any single place, the more vulnerable its field units and logistics become.
Good objective analysis. My initial thoughts based on open source analysis is that the Russian defensive lines are quite formidable as one would expect given their large amount of time to prepare. Brigade level breaching operations are incredibly complex. I suspect that the UA doesn't have the training to accomplish this nor do they have air sufficient air support or artillery mobility experience on the offensive. Will they be tempted to simply force the positions? Old habits die hard. It's early days but the cynic in me is wondering if the West purposely dragged their feet supplying eqpt and that there's a napkin somewhere with the new borders already drawn. I hope I am wrong.